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John from Moneycorp

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  1. GBP/AUD exchange rate at great levels today for those transferring money from the UK to Australia. News from the UK regarding inflation was positively received by the markets. If you are interested in transferring money and want to take advantage of the good GBP/AUD rate, visit here - http://www.pomsinadelaide.com/index.php?pageid=forex
  2. Weekly review of the Aussie dollar below. The Aussie got off to a slow start, with no domestic economic data published last Friday and the Queen's birthday holiday on Monday. Tuesday's 1% monthly increase in mortgage lending had minimal impact on the currency. On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of Australia governor said in a speech that the RBA is still "open to the possibility" of further interest rate cuts. His comment sent the Australian dollar lower but not for long, because Thursday's employment figures were much better than expected: 42k people found new jobs in May and the rate of unemployment fell to 6.0%. With the RBA governor and the employment figures cancelling out one another the Aussie had only a mediocre week. It strengthened by half a cent against the euro and added third of a US cent but lost a cent to sterling.
  3. Latest update below, thanks During the middle two weeks in May there was minimal net change in the euro/Aussie exchange rate. Both currencies were losing ground to the American dollar, which had rediscovered its mojo after two months on the defensive. Towards the end of the month they diverged, the euro picking up ground against the US dollar while the Aussie carried on lower. At the beginning of June both currencies moved higher against the Greenback but the euro moved faster and further. The net result is that the euro has strengthened by four Australian cents in the last month. Against the US dollar the euro is up by a cent while the Australian dollar has fallen by three. All of the commodity-oriented currencies had a fairly rough ride: the NZ dollar was down by almost twice as much as the Aussie and the South African rand fell even further than the Kiwi. Most of the Australian economic statistics to emerge in May were either not helpful to the Aussie or actively unhelpful. Investors took a particularly dim view of a sharp quarterly fall in private sector investment. Things looked up in June though. The Reserve Bank of Australia failed to make the rate cut that some had feared and economic growth for the first quarter came in stronger than anticipated. The euro zone economy grew by less than Australia's in Q1 and during the first three weeks of May the data coming out of Euroland were similarly uninspiring. Towards the end of the month the picture started to improve just as investors' attention was swinging back to the four-month-long spat between the Greek government and its creditors, the IMF/EC/ECB "troika". Investors decided they liked what they saw, especially after the leaders of Germany, France and the troika held a special meeting in Berlin to put together a "final offer" to Athens. Since then, and despite the postponement of a €300 million repayment by Greece to the IMF, the broad view has been that neither Athens nor Euroland would benefit from Greece's default or its exit from the single currency. That being the case, they are more likely than not to come to a compromise. But the deal is not yet done and both sides continue to stick to the "no surrender" line. Before the end of June Greece must repay €1.6 billion to the IMF, something it will be unable to do unless an agreement is reached and the bailout payments restarted. The euro is not out of the woods yet.
  4. Poor retail sales figures have slightly weakened the Australian dollar against the pound.
  5. The interest rate decision, on Tuesday, from the RBA could have an impact on the GBP/AUD exchange rate. Additionally, there is other economic news coming out from Australia which could affect the Aussie dollar (GDP for the first quarter).
  6. It has been really good levels this week for those transferring money from the UK to Australia. Both of the antipodean dollars had a rough week, suffering in almost equal measure. For the Aussie it meant a loss of two and a half US cents and a two-and-a-quarter-cent loss to sterling. It was not quite a one-way-street but the downward pressure seemed fairly constant. The few Australian economic statistics were not a lot of help, with construction work falling in the first quarter and new home sales slowing. A sharp -4.4% quarterly fall in private sector capital expenditure was particularly damaging. The greatest cause for concern was the estimate that capital spending in 2015-16 will be 24.6% less than in 2014-15. Along the way the antipodeans suffered collateral damage from some punchy American ecostats which kept alive investor's belief that US interest rates will begin to head higher before the end of the year. Strong US payrolls numbers next Friday would reinforce that belief.
  7. Exchange rate looking good today for those transferring money from the UK to Australia - GBP/AUD creeping towards $2.
  8. It was a fairly busy week for the Australian dollar but not a spectacularly successful one. After covering four-cent ranges against the euro and the British pound it was, in the end, almost unchanged against both of them. The Aussie did manage to pick up one and a half US cents but only because the Greenback was the week's poorest major-currency performer. The handful of Australian economic statistics did not give investors much to go on. NAB's barometer of business confidence was unchanged in April, there was a rebound in mortgage lending and the wage price index rose by 2.3% in the year to March. On Tuesday the government unveiled its budget, which met with modest approval but did not move the currency. Next week's agenda is even more thinly-populated, with vehicle sales on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday and inflation expectations on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia board minutes come out on Tuesday.
  9. The Australian dollar remains strong against the pound currently - the interest rate cut earlier this week was expected and the signs are there won't be any future cuts in the short/medium term in Australia.
  10. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have cut interest rates to a record low 2%. This news was widely expected. This week could be a difficult one for the pound with much uncertainty over the UK Election on Thursday – for some time now, opinion polls have been showing a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.
  11. The Australian dollar was in the back half of the major currency field, as was sterling. It lost a cent to the pound and more than three euro cents. The Aussie took a cent from the week's poorest performer, the US dollar. No top-tier Australian economic statistics were released during the week. The only figure of any interest to investors was the manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index. At 48.0 it indicated slowing activity for a fifth consecutive month. The Aussie did, however, get a boost from the Reserve Bank of Australia governor. He hinted in a speech that if the RBA cuts interest rates next week it would be the last such move. In the week ahead the principal risk to the Aussie's value against sterling will be Thursday's UK general election. It is easier to imagine a result that would damage the pound than one that would be positive for it.
  12. Weekly review below. The week's price action for the Australian dollar was defined almost entirely by central banks and monetary policy. It moved higher after the People's Bank of China said it was reducing the amount of capital banks must hold to back up their lending. The move is intended to stimulate the Chinese economy, which would be good for Australian exports. On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia governor sent the Aussie south when he said in a speech that the possibility of lower interest rates "has to be on the table" and "the board has… clearly signalled its willingness to lower [the Cash Rate] even further". A day later the currency strengthened on the back of higher-than-expected inflation with the RBA's preferred measure, the "trimmed mean", accelerating to 2.3%. Higher inflation means less chance of a rate cut. The net result was that the Aussie lost a cent and a half to sterling and held steady against the US dollar.
  13. Weekly review below. The Australian dollar began the week badly and ended it well. Overall it weakened by two thirds of a cent against sterling and added nearly one US cent. It was unchanged against the NZ dollar. Monday's trade figures from China hurt both the antipodean dollars. They showed exports slumping by -15.0% with imports down by -12.7%. The data for China's gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales hurt them again. The pace of growth in China slowed in the first quarter while production and sales were up by less than expected. The Aussie's get-out-of-jail card was Thursday's employment data, which were much punchier than expected. Not only were 37.7k jobs added during the month, February's 15.6k increase was revised up to 41.9k. Unemployment ticked down to 6.0%. The figures surprised and delighted investors and they reacted by buying the Aussie.
  14. Boost for the Australian dollar as strong employment figures released in Australia.
  15. The Australian dollar has weakened slightly against the pound. Why? Poor trade data from China released – economic news from China can affect the dollar (China is a key trading nation for Australia).
  16. In the first half of March the euro was on the retreat. During the second half and into early April it staged something of a counterattack. And after Easter it suffered a relapse. The euro rebounded against all the major currencies in the middle of March but never gave the impression that the bounce was any more than a correction. Sure enough, in mid-April the euro was back to the trough it had touched a month earlier against the US and Australian dollars. The Aussie therefore had a better result than the euro over the month, strengthening by one and a third euro cents. It lost one US cent and strengthened by three and a quarter cents against sterling. The euro was up by a cent against the pound and lost two and a half US cents. Perhaps the least surprising development - or lack of it - in Euroland over the period was the failure of leaders to advance the negotiations about Greece's bailout. The situation is no worse than it was a month ago but neither is it any better. Brussels has told the Greek government that if it wasn’t any more money it must propose a set of reforms that will bring its budget towards balance, in conformity with the conditions imposed by earlier bailouts. Athens has already missed two deadlines for this process; the next one falls on 15 April: nobody will be astonished if this one, too, is missed. In the euro's favour, the economic data from Euroland showed further signs of improvement. For example, purchasing managers' index readings from the services sector, which measure private sector business activity on a scale of 0-100, were all above 50, signifying expansion. Even so, the ECB said it would not be distracted from its QE programme, which will continue until September next year with the central bank printing €60bn a month. The Australian ecostats were rather less impressive. Australia has been deeply wounded by declining demand for its mining output and the prices it receives for them. Iron ore provides the most striking example. Five years ago iron ore sold for US$170 a ton. A year ago it went for $115 a ton. At the time of writing it is down to $50 a ton. There was some help from the Reserve Bank of Australia though. The RBA was widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate in early April. When it failed to do so the Aussie dollar bounced, even though the decision looked more like a postponement of the cut rather than its cancellation. For a month now, investors have been trying to figure out whether to send the euro lower again or whether to back off. That decision will determine whether the EUR/AUD is lower or higher in a month's time. The best guess is that it will be lower but that's all it is; a guess.
  17. The performance of the Australian dollar over the eight-day week was a reverse of what it had done over the previous seven days. The Aussie strengthened by four and a quarter cents against sterling, by three cents against the euro and by one against the US dollar. It was unchanged against the Kiwi. Australian economic data had little to do with its success. The trade deficit was not quite as wide as forecast but it was still a deficit. Purchasing managers' index readings from the services and construction sectors pointed to increasing activity but on a scale of 0-100 they were only just in the growth zone at 50.2 and 50.1. However, the US dollar lost ground on news of much slower American jobs growth. And with the UK general election less than a month away the pound found itself under increasing pressure from political risk.
  18. A monthly currency review is below. Judged by its closest peer, the Australian dollar did not have a good month. It sank to its lowest level ever against the NZ dollar and began April little more than a cent above parity - one-for-one. The Aussie fared even less well against March's leading currency, the US dollar, falling by two and a half cents or -3.1%. However, it picked up a cent against sterling and added a (less-valuable) cent against the euro too. The Aussie started the month quite well. There had been a general expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia would lower its benchmark interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25% in early March. When the RBA surprised the market by not making the cut the Aussie enjoyed a relief rally. A fortnight later the RBA rather spoiled things when the minutes of the policy meeting failed to rule out the possibility of lower interest rates later - and maybe not much later - this year. The comment was that "further easing [lower interest rates] over the period ahead may be appropriate". All the commodity-oriented currencies, including the Aussie and the Kiwi, received some support from the US Federal Reserve's toned-down guidance on US interest rates. Although the Fed no longer promises to be "patient" in taking US interest rates higher it was at pains to point out that it would not be impatient. It also reaffirmed that when rates do head higher they will do so very slowly. Behind all the fuss about interest rates the cold hard fact is that the Australian economy is finding it tough going as a result of the slump in demand for mining output. Iron ore provides the most striking example. Five years ago iron ore sold for US$170 a ton. A year ago it went for $115 a ton. At the time of writing it is down to $50 a ton. The government has been aware of the problem for a couple of years and is keen to "rebase" the economy away from mining but an exercise like that is not the work of an idle moment and the currency is feeling the pinch. It is not the only one. The euro staged a bit of a recovery in mid-March after rebounding from a 12-year low against the US dollar and a 7-year low against sterling but it is not out of the woods yet. In March the European Central Bank kicked off its quantitative easing programme which will involve printing €60bn a month until September next year. There is a heated ongoing discussion between the EU and Greece about whether or not Athens must stick to the terms of its bailout loans: it could possibly (though is not likely to) end up with Greece defaulting on its borrowings and leaving the euro. The US economy is no longer delivering the crowd-pleasing economic data that kept the Greenback in the lead last year and investors are fretting about next month's general election in Britain. UK opinion polls point to no overall majority, the worst possible case for investors who value strong government. The Aussie, from an economic and interest-rate standpoint, still looks the most vulnerable of the bunch but the others are also surrounded by question marks. The picture is far more complicated than it was a few months ago and it promises to become more so.
  19. Australian dollar still weak today against the pound - interest rate announcement in Australia next week will be interesting.
  20. The Australian dollar has weakened against the pound over the past 24 hours - this follows a decline in global commodity prices.
  21. Moneycorp can help with your money transfers back to the UK - you would send your dollars to our Australian dollar bank account. We would then do the conversion into pound then send to your UK bank account. You would not be charged any transfer fees. Please let me know if you would like any further information or feel free to private message me. Thanks John
  22. It could be worth discussing with your Moneycorp Account Manager the different ways you can buy your currency - you can, for example, set a target exchange rate and if it hits these levels we can automatically buy your dollars (or just give you a call to let you know). Or you could lock into the rate when it reaches a favourable level too. Thanks John
  23. Latest currency update is below. By and large it was a good week for the commodity-oriented currencies but the Aussie was unable to squeeze maximum advantage from investors sentiment: although it strengthened by a cent and a half against sterling it was only able to hold steady against the US dollar. It went down by a cent against the NZ dollar, coming close to the long-term low it scored earlier this month. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting, published on Tuesday, did not do any obvious damage at the time but seem to have weighed on the currency. They confirmed that "further easing [lower interest rates] over the period ahead may be appropriate". It was probably that knowledge that made the Aussie unable to make the most of the US Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday when it told investors not hold their breath in anticipation of higher US rates.
  24. The Australian dollar has weakened slightly. This followed comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent – he said the Australian dollar is still "relatively high".
  25. During the first three of the last 28 days the euro was showing signs of spirit. The leaders of the new Greek government were talking to the EU and there was a sensation that Athens, Brussels and Frankfurt would eventually cobble together some sort of lash-up to keep Greece in business and the euro in one piece. Expectations were not high but investors were pinning such hopes as they had on the EU's legendary ability to kick cans down roads. To an extent they were correct to do so. A month on, the can is about to get another kick but in the interim the euro has been surprisingly resilient. There is no doubt that it has weakened: compared with its levels in early February the euro is down by five Australian cents, two US cents and two and a half British pence. But the Swiss franc has fallen even further, losing two cents to the euro. The two topics of overriding interest for the euro were quantitative easing and, of course, Greece. QE was expected to send the euro lower if it went well; Greece could have sent it lower if it went badly. In both cases it was a waiting game. QE was not scheduled to get under way until March, not least because the ECB had a lot of preparatory work to do. Greece could go awry at any moment but few expected an early disaster. Sure enough, Athens conceded sufficient ground to be allowed to make its own decisions about the reforms it would put into effect. Unfortunately, until now those reforms have not met with the approval of the Eurogroup of finance ministers. The northern Europeans are particularly nervous about the plan to increase tax revenue by hiring tourists as secret tax inspectors. Meanwhile the Australian dollar was keeping pace with the leaders. During most of February it was going nowhere fast but at the beginning of March the Aussie got an unexpected leg up from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Investors had expected that the RBA board would decide, at its meeting on 3 March, to lower its benchmark interest rate from 2.25% to 2%. Its failure to do so sent the dollar an instant cent higher and altered the way investors viewed the currency. The following day's Australian gross domestic product figures showed the economy expanding by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014. It was not a hugely impressive number but it was enough to beat the performance of many other developed countries. So the story today is strangely similar to the one a month ago. The ECB has now begun its programme to print and spend €60bn a month and it will continue until next September, come what may. To an extent, investors will by now have priced into the euro the effect of the ECB's €1080bn spending spree. However it still looks likely that the euro will continue its downward slide, helped along every so often by a new crisis in Greece.
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